Tom Brady Wins Super Bowl with Overtime TD Drive! Patriots vs Falcons Super Bowl LI Highlights

7 years ago


Burrow vs Trevor Lawrence: Which QB is the best bet in the CFP Championship Game?


Jan 10, 2020 |



Joe Burrow vs Trevor Lawrence: Which QB is the best bet in the CFP Championship Game?

The media is eating up this head-to-head showdown between Burrow and Lawrence and, honestly, so are college football bettors. As the QBs go, so does the CFP National Championship, so we’re running down the prop odds around these two arms.

Photo By - USA TODAY Sports




The media is eating up this head-to-head showdown between Burrow and Lawrence and, honestly, so are college football bettors. As the QBs go, so does the CFP National Championship, so we’re running down the prop odds around these two arms.

Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

 



The CFP Championship has everything you could want: two undefeated teams, a reigning champ defending its title in hostile territory, and of course, two dashing leading men.


Clemson and LSU are headlined by two quarterbacks playing incredible football entering Monday’s college football championship in New Orleans. Joe Burrow is the Heisman Trophy winner and coming off a record-shattering performance in the Peach Bowl. Trevor Lawrence is pushing for his second straight title and put Clemson on his broad golden shoulders in the Fiesta Bowl.


The media is eating up this head-to-head showdown under center and, honestly, so are college football bettors. As the QBs go, so does the CFP National Championship, so we’re running down the prop odds around these two arms. It’s time for Burrow vs. Lawrence.


PASSING YARDS


After his 493-yard performance in the Peach Bowl and a Heisman-worthy campaign in which he passed for 5,208 yards, it’s easy to see why Burrow is a big -400 fave to have the most passing yards in the CFP Championship (with Lawrence coming back at +250). 


Each QBs passing yard Over/Under total varies from book to book. But if we look at the consensus, we find Burrow at 365.5 yards and Lawrence at 291.5 (which has climbed since opening around 289.5). From that, we can give Burrow a 73.5-yard handicap if you want to play a head-to-head option.


Burrow has gone Over this number six times in 2019-20, most notably hanging 393 yards passing on Alabama in Week 11. Clemson hasn't allowed any rival QB to come close to this total, with Ohio State's Justin Fields throwing for 320 yards in the Fiesta Bowl.


As for Lawrence, he's topped 291 yards through the air only three times all year, topping out at 395 yards versus Syracuse in Week 3. The LSU defense has faced more passing plays than all but 11 other programs - due in part to opponents playing from behind - and has kept those QBs Under a 291-yard O/U in 11 of its 14 games this season.



COMPLETIONS


Much like the passing yards, LSU’s gunslinger has the higher Over/Under for total completions at 27.5. Burrow connected on 29 of 39 throws in the Peach Bowl and was 28 for 38 in the SEC Championship.


On the year, he put up 26.5 completions per game but now faces a Clemson defense that limited all but three of its 14 foes to 17 or fewer completions – given it did allow its last two opponents to connect for 30 catches each.


Lawrence’s completion Over/Under is at 21.5 for Monday’s title game. He’s gone above this number only three times in 2019-20 and has posted completion totals of 16 and 18 in the Tigers’ two postseason games (Virginia and Ohio State).


Louisiana State allowed 222 yards passing per game (in part to teams falling behind big on the scoreboard and having to pass a lot) but limited opposing passers to a 50.8 percent completion rate and allowed only three QBs to go Over 21.5 total completions on the season.





LONGEST COMPLETION


While there’s a gap in the passing yards and completion Over/Under totals between Burrow and Lawrence (LSU throws on 53.5 percent of snaps while Clemson passes only 48 percent of the time), the totals for longest completion are much more comparable. 


Both QBs are known for hitting home run plays, with Burrow’s longest competition total at 52.5 yards and Lawrence’s pegged at 50.5. 


Burrow has topped that pending CFP total in nine games this season, including connecting for passes of at least 62 yards in each of his last three outings and topping this mark in four of his last five games. Clemson’s secondary has allowed just three passing plays that would have eclipsed this Monday’s total all season: a 54-yarder to Georgia Tech, a 64-yarder to FSU, and a 79-yarder to Wofford. 


Lawrence has been swinging for the fences in recent games, putting up passes of 53 yards or more in each of his last four contests. On the year, the blonde bombshell has topped this 50.5-yard O/U in nine games. Louisiana State gave up four passes that would breach this O/U: 55-yarder to Texas, 85-yarder to Alabama, 55-yarder to Ole Miss, and a 51-yarder to Oklahoma in the Peach Bowl.



TOUCHDOWN PASSES


The tall total for the CFP Championship Game – currently 69.5 points – would indicate a plethora of touchdown strikes from these two quarterbacks. 


Burrow racked up seven touchdown passes in the Peach Bowl and has connected for three or more touchdowns in six straight games, totaling 25 TD passes in that span. Books have his Over/Under on touchdown passes at 3.5 (Under -115) for Monday’s title game, facing a Clemson stop unit that gave up only nine TDs through the air all season. 


Lawrence’s TD passes prop is sitting at 2.5 (Over -150) for the national title game. He had two touchdown throws against Ohio State but went for three or more in each of the eight game prior to the Fiesta Bowl, including touchdown connections in the ACC Championship. Lawrence has three TD passes versus Alabama in last year’s CFP finale.


Louisiana State allowed 20 passing touchdowns this season but as mentioned above, forced many opponents to go all-pass due to playing from behind (LSU foes threw on 52.4 percent of snaps – 12th most in the country). The Tigers secondary got very stingy toward the end of the schedule, giving up only three passing scores in the last five games. 





RUSHING YARDS


Adding to their already canon arms, both Burrow and Lawrence have the ability to make plays with their legs when things break down. Lawrence, especially, is a threat to bust off big gains on the ground, showing off his speed with a 69-yard touchdown scamper in the Fiesta Bowl that flipped that game on its ear.


Most books have the Clemson QB’s rushing yards total set at 53.5 for the CFP Championship Game – a number he could easy blow out of the water with one run. On the season, Lawrence averaged just under 38 yards rushing per game and honestly didn’t need to run much due to the softer defenses in the ACC. Lawrence has, however, found himself scrambling more in recent outings, posting rushing totals of 59, 66, and 107 yards in the Fiesta Bowl in three of the Tigers’ last five contests.


Burrow is no pure pocket passer either, which is why bookies have his rushing total set at a respectable 30.5 yards – which may be a nod to his mobility but also toward the Clemson defense, which has 42 sacks on the season and will look to move the Heisman winner around Monday night. 


Burrow has gone Over this total five times this season and by no coincidence those efforts came against elite defenses in Florida, Auburn, Alabama, and Georgia (Utah State being the other game). Burrow was sacked a collective 12 times in those five games or 41 percent of his total sacks taken on the year, which could predict plenty of rushing yards as Burrow tries to escape Clemson’s pressure.


OFFENSIVE MVP


In accordance with the spread and all the subsequent props, it’s no surprise to see Burrow as the -222 favorite to win Offensive MVP for the CFP Championship Game. 


Lawrence, installed as the second-overall choice at +190, won this honor in last year’s title game but given the blueprint for how Clemson should approach slowing down the LSU offense, it would seem that Tigers RB Travis Etienne (+1,300 – fifth overall on the MVP board) is a live option, knowing that Clemson will want to control the clock and tempo with a heavy ground game and keep Burrow iced on the sideline. 


The third and fourth options are LSU receivers Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase (both at +1,000) but their fortunes are directly linked to Burrow’s, so it would seem far fetched that they would get the MVP vote over the Heisman-touting QB. Tigers running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire rounds out the notables at +1,60


    Comments (0)